Decision Making Questionnaire

These questions come from Dr. Paul Hershberger's Inventory of Cognitive Biases in Medicine, and Scott Plous's The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making.
  1. A 40 year old female complains of morning stiffness and join pain. Rank these 3 diagnoses in order of likelihood:
  2. Your patient is a young man referred to you from an inner-city screening clinic. The patient appears to be very effeminate. He is more likely here for:
  3. 600 people will die from a flu outbreak. Which do you prefer?
  4. Captopril is a safe and effective treatment for hypertension in diabetic patients. One of the rarer side effects is severe hypotension in a patient with renal failure. One of your diabetic patients with mild renal failure has just suffered a stroke shortly after starting on Captopril. You now have a diabetic patient in your office who has hypertension and mild renal failure. Which would you do?
  5. A piece of paper is folded in half, in half again, etc.

    6. After 100 folds how thick will it be (take your best guess)? _____________
    Now give a range of thicknesses so that you're 95% sure that the answer lies between _______ and ________
  6. Two hospitals serve a certain city. In the larger hospital, 45 babies are born each day; in the smaller, 15 babies. For a year, the hospitals recorded the number of days on which more than 60% of the babies born were boys. At the end of the year, which hospital recorded more such days?
  7. Which would you prefer? Which would you prefer?
  8. You are a pediatrician. The last four patients you have seen in your office today have been girls. Is the next patient you see more likely to be:
  9. Are there more words in the English language that start with "r" or for which "r" is the third letter?